The memorandum of understanding that the U.S. and Iran signed on Wednesday could cement Tehran’s long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the door open for the regime to charge fees on oil tankers and other ships attempting to transit it in the future, analysts said.
The oil industry has said throughout the conflict that its top priority is to restore shipping flows through the Hormuz to the way they were prior to the war, when the waterway carried 20 percent of the world’s oil and was fully open to vessels without any tolls or fees. The Trump administration said it shared that goal, but analysts said the agreement appears to throw that into question.
The framework, which President Donald Trump said he signed on Wednesday night, requires Iran to clear the waterway for commercial shipping within a month and bars it from charging for passage for 60 days. But after that, it leaves administration of Hormuz up to the two countries it borders — Iran and Oman — in line with “applicable international law,” according to details shared by the White House on Wednesday.
“The U.S. is no longer insisting on the right of free navigation” through the Strait of Hormuz, said David Goldwyn, head of the international energy consulting firm Goldwyn Global Strategies and a former State Department official in the Obama administration.
