The electric vehicle isn’t dead in America — far from it. But after a few years of hit-the-accelerator-and-slam the-brakes drama, it’s likely that 2026 will be quieter.
That’s the consensus among experts who follow the EV industry. A number new electric models may stir excitement, but production and sales could be sluggish. Meanwhile, in the background, government policies and manufacturing plans may change in subtle ways.
“It’s not dead, but it’s in suspended animation for a year or maybe two,” said Alan Baum, an independent Detroit auto analyst.
The EV has undergone a giant vibe shift in the past year.
A wave of new vehicle announcements and plans for new factories, fueled by supportive government policies, came to a crashing halt with President Donald Trump’s inauguration last January. Since then, the president and his Republican allies in Congress have neutered nearly every federal incentive and regulation that favored electrics.
That seismic shift makes 2026 the dawn of a new, Darwinian era.
“It doesn’t mean EVs are going to vanish by any means, but it means they are going to live or die based on market demand,” said Karl Brauer, an auto analyst for the online auto-sales site iSeeCars.com.
And that demand isn’t looking great.
Sales of new EVs reached an all-time high of 11.7 percent in September, according to Cox Automotive. Car buyers rushed to take advantage of the last month of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit. By November, sales had plunged to 5.4 percent, the lowest in more than three years.
Car-buyer sentiment doesn’t suggest that sales will climb again soon.
According to a recent study by CDK, a digital platform for auto dealers, nearly a third of gas car buyers of two years ago — 31 percent — wanted an EV for their next car. Now, only 11 percent of traditional travelers want to go electric.
“Gas shoppers — and to a lesser extent hybrid shoppers — are far less likely to buy an EV in the future than they were just a year ago,” the study said.
Baum is projecting that America’s EV sales in 2026 will tread water or fall slightly short of the 1.1 million sold last year.
Reasons for optimism
Leading EV advocates looked past the bleak sales projections and are steadfast that the American market for EVs will survive and prosper once again.
The late-2025 sales numbers “are still numbers that a year or two ago we would have been delighted to see,” said Ben Prochazka, the executive director of the Electrification Coalition, a nonprofit that seeks to bolster EV markets and policies.
One thing that gives them hope is that EV buyers are persistent. The market-intelligence service J.D. Power said in a report last year that 94 percent of U.S. EV buyers intended to buy an EV again.
Furthermore, a wave of relatively affordable used EVs are poised to hit auto lots, as prior years’ EV leases come to an end. “That will help in normalizing EVs,” Prochazka said.
Joel Levin, the executive director of Plug In America, a nonprofit that aims to get more drivers into EVs, takes encouragement from the fact that many of 2025’s top-selling electrics — including those from Tesla, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai and Volkswagen — are still on sale.
“None of them are going away,” he said.
However, state and local governments, already strapped from a general pullback in aid from Uncle Sam, don’t seem to be in position to fill the yawning gap of federal support that aided EV sales until last year.
EV advocates interviewed for this story couldn’t name a pending policy at the state or local level that will move the needle on EV adoption.
“The states are trying to step up where they can, but it’s hard,” Levin said.
Exciting EVs, but not many of them
A number of new EVs are likely to generate buzz if they are released as promised in 2026.
Analysts and observers pointed to the Rivian R2, a smaller and less expensive version of the electric automaker’s signature SUV, and the Slate, a bare-bones but affordable electric truck.
Auto reviewers have raved about the new BMW iX3, with a lighter battery and faster charging. And Japanese automakers are finally stepping up their U.S. electric game. Honda is supposed to start releasing its “O Series” EVs from a new factory in Ohio, and both Subaru and Toyota have two models set for release this year.
But none is expected to be released in high volumes, according to Baum, the Detroit auto analyst.
That includes the plans for General Motors’ electric Bolt, which received a surge of interest from buyers just as it was pulled from production in 2023.
The refreshed version is due this year but is scheduled to be produced in just a single shift from a factory in Kansas. Like other automakers, GM isn’t signaling plans to make all that many EVs this year.
And for the nation’s leading electric automaker, Tesla, it may be a stagnant year for EV sales.
CEO Elon Musk has said that the Cybercab, an electric robotaxi with no steering wheel, may be released this year. But given regulatory headwinds, it is unlikely to be produced in big volumes.
Tesla’s other vehicles are old by industry standards and may face continued declining sales this year, Baum said.
The partial-EV promise
Two types of EV in 2026 appear ascendant yet scarce: the plug-in hybrid and the extended-range electric hybrid.
The two types rely in part on both a gas engine and a battery, but they do so in different ways. A plug-in hybrid, or PHEV, is primarily an internal-combustion engine vehicle that first runs on a battery until its electrons are expended. An extended-range electric vehicle, or EREV, is primarily an electric vehicle with a backup gasoline generator. That generator kicks in to charge the battery when it’s low.
EREVs are big news when comes to big trucks. Automakers have learned that truck drivers are skeptical of all-electric trucks because their range degrades quickly when towing heavy trailers.
Last month, Ford axed the F-150 Lightning, its signature all-electric truck, citing low demand. Ford said it would pivot to making the vehicle an EREV but offered no release date.
Ford followed in the footsteps of Ram and the new Volkswagen nameplate Scout, both of which have scaled back original plans to make all-electric trucks and now plan to start with EREVs.
Meanwhile, more PHEVs are due to hit the market, including low-carbon versions of the Jeep Grand Wagoneer and the Nissan Rogue.
EV advocates are cheering the evolution. “If it plugs in, it’s the right thing for us to support,” said Prochazka of the Electrification Coalition.
However, as with pure EVs, don’t expect to see many more of them in dealer showrooms. Baum estimates that 360,000 PHEVs will be sold this year, up only modestly from the 316,000 sold last year.
“It’s not that the automakers don’t want to offer plug-ins, but they made their plans only recently, and they have to get their supply chains in order,” Baum said.
Meanwhile, EV experts said, the other key levers that could open the door to more EV sales — more charging stations, and less expensive batteries — are coming.
But changes are likely to be incremental and escape the attention of the car-buying public.
“More product, cheaper batteries — and thus better vehicles — and better charging infrastructure is the story,” said Baum. “I just don’t think it applies to next year.”
