The record-breaking marine heat wave in the seas off northern Europe was “unprecedented but not unexpected” in a rapidly warming climate, a new study found.
In June 2023, ocean temperatures climbed nearly 3 degrees Celsius above normal. An analysis of climate model simulations estimated a 10 percent chance for heat events of that scale to reoccur each year.
Using a large ensemble of climate model simulations, researchers found those odds had jumped significantly, from 1 to 4 percent in the early 1990s to around 10 percent today, depending on the region.
“The speed and magnitude of the event was quite striking at the time,” said Jamie Atkins, a climate scientist and researcher at Utrecht University. He led the study, published Tuesday in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, during his doctorate at the University of Exeter. “But really, in the context of climate change, we should have expected this.”
