President Donald Trump may think his war in Iran is a boon for the oil industry — but his way of putting it is causing consternation.
“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,“ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday as crude prices rose to $95 per barrel, a 40 percent increase from where they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago.
Trump’s post highlights the industry’s complicated relationship with the president — and its messaging conundrum. While oil companies are benefiting financially from the nearly $30-per-barrel run up in crude prices since the war started, executives are also worried that volatile prices are making business decisions difficult, and high prices will generate public backlash.
“The idea that the industry profits from war and death is not one a VP of public relations wants to promote,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
Trump’s post drew groans from some in the industry.
“Oh, boy….” one oil industry source responded when shown Trump’s social media post.
Trump’s message also feeds into a perception that oil companies are looking to gouge consumers, said a second industry official granted anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
“This highlights the complicated relationship the oil industry has with the president,” another industry source said. “President Trump’s overarching concern is always the price at the pump — and the lower the better. There is also some notion that the oil and gas industry secretly works to raise prices, which is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the industry works on a global and transparent market basis.”
Trump’s post also plays into some voters’ cynicism about business in general and the oil industry in particular, said Mark Mizruchi, a University of Michigan professor who focuses on the economic and political behavior of large American corporations.
“The interesting thing about Trump’s statement is that he inadvertently stated a belief that a lot of people have — that something like this happens and the oil companies will make a lot of money,” Mizruchi said. “It probably didn’t occur to him that people — including in the industry — weren’t happy about that” statement.
The White House has maintained that the price of oil and gasoline — which has jumped 60 cents per gallon since the fighting started — will ultimately come down after the war because new supplies from Iran will come onto the global markets.
“Ultimately, once the military objectives of Operation Epic Fury are completed and the Iranian terrorist regime is neutralized, oil and gas prices will drop rapidly again, potentially even lower than before the strikes begin,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. “As a result, American families will benefit greatly in the long term.”
In the meantime, Rogers said, the administration “has and will continue working cooperatively with leaders in the energy industry to stabilize markets.”
The war is already causing difficulty for the industry. Oil companies operating solely in the United States will get pure short-term profit from the spike in prices, but large international companies may have to shut down assets they’re operating in the Persian Gulf, white the supply shock afflicting Southeast Asia and Europe could also persuade countries to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, Jones said.
Andrea Woods, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, said in a statement that the industry is “focused on working with the administration to ensure safe and reliable operations in the region.”
“Energy market volatility does not benefit anyone, including producers who rely on certainty and stability for long-term business decisions,” Woods said.
The oil industry has had a volatile relationship with Trump since his first administration, one where they benefit from some of his policies — but also suffer under others, like tariffs. And while Trump is one of the industry’s biggest cheerleaders, he has also dragged them into politics in ways industry executives are not always comfortable with.
Trump on the campaign trail made a point of asking oil industry executives for a billion dollars, but the industry overall contributed $75 million, according to an analysis of campaign contributions by the environmental communications firm Climate Power — less than Trump’s campaign received from SpaceX, the firm owned by billionaire Elon Musk. Harold Hamm, the chair and founder of oil company Continental Resources and an informal energy adviser to Trump in his first and second terms, initially backed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential campaign.
Trump also tried to push oil company executives into publicly supporting his administration’s military action against Venezuela and promising to quickly invest in drilling for oil in the country. That move met pushback from some executives who didn’t share Trump’s optimism on how easy it would be to revive Venezuela’s oil fields.
Democrats and environmental groups wasted little time to use Trump’s post to slam the administration and the oil industry.
“I’ve been saying forever that Donald Trump’s energy policy is to prioritize the interest of energy producers (high prices) over consumers (low prices),” Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) said in an X post. “It appears he agrees with me.”
“Instability makes oil prices soar,” Lorne Stockman, international research director at Oil Change International said in a press release response to the post. “As geopolitical tensions rise, Trump’s fossil fuel billionaire donors reap windfall profits while people are being killed and working people around the world face higher energy and food costs.”
In Trump’s post, the president isn’t talking about families grappling with their bills, said Jesse Lee, a senior adviser at Climate Power.
“Trump is talking about the people he cares about most — the oil and gas billionaires who spent millions of dollars to get him elected,” Lee said in an email. “Trump will always put his billionaire buddies first, and working families will always be left to pay the price.”
Rising oil prices are expected to be a political liability for Republicans heading into midterm elections later this year. Even besides higher prices at the local gas station, the effect of increased crude costs will hit voter pocketbooks in a myriad of ways.
Companies across a range of industries have started to implement energy surcharges to absorb higher fuel costs, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said in note to clients.
“UPS and Maersk (shipping), Ecolab (chemicals), and Cathay Pacific (aviation) are among the firms unveiling surcharges this week,” Molchanov said in the note. “We expect more such announcements until oil prices cool meaningfully from four-year highs.”
