Nate Swanson spent nearly two decades in the U.S. government, including most recently as a State Department representative on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team and previously as the National Security Council’s director for Iran in the Biden administration. Days before the U.S. bombed Iran, Swanson published a piece predicting that Iran would do exactly what it has done should the U.S. attack.
That’s expertise President Donald Trump had available to him — until Swanson, an Obama holdover, was “forced out” of his post after a critical tweet from conservative podcaster Laura Loomer, Swanson said. Loomer did not return comment and a White House official, speaking on background, noted that Swanson did not serve on the National Security Council in the Trump administration.
In his piece for Foreign Affairs published Feb. 24, Swanson wrote that Iran would not capitulate after a bombing campaign but rather escalate and “target global oil flows and international shipping, sending energy prices up and creating a serious political liability for Trump.” And indeed, Iran has made scattershot attacks on energy targets and others across the region, as well as throttling passage through the Strait of Hormuz by threatening attacks on ships.
In an interview with POLITICO last week, Swanson predicted that the Trump administration’s negotiations with Iran will not go well because both sides are “irrationally confident” in their positions. Neither side seems willing to find an off-ramp at this point, he said.
