PJM watchdog warns 58,000 megawatts of power generation may shut by 2030

By Catherine Morehouse | 03/15/2024 06:50 AM EDT

That estimate is about 18,000 MW higher than what PJM projected last year.

Emissions spew from a large stack at the coal fired Brandon Shores Power Plant.

Emissions spew at the coal-fired Brandon Shores Power Plant in Baltimore. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

The nation’s largest power market risks losing nearly 58,000 megawatts in mostly fossil fuel power-generating capacity before 2030, potentially driving up prices for consumers to keep old power plants online, according to the market’s independent monitor.

More than 33,000 megawatts of the 57,694 megawatts are at risk of closure in the PJM Interconnection, which stretches from the mid-Atlantic to Chicago, are struggling to stay afloat because of the rapid drop in prices in the region’s capacity market. Another 19,600 megawatts face early retirement because of regulatory requirements.

That estimate, released as part of the Independent Market Monitor’s annual State of the Market briefing on Thursday, is about 18,000 megawatts higher than what PJM projected last year.


Those possible power plant losses are compounded by a “slow and tortured” interconnection system that struggles to bring new resources online, according to IMM President Joseph Bowring, who has tracked the market for more than two decades.