Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices

By Gabriel Gavin, Eva Hartog, Geoffrey Smith | 10/03/2024 06:37 AM EDT

A Saudi move to grab market share will squeeze the Kremlin’s finances, experts argue.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a meeting.

Saudi Arabia "understands perfectly well that Russian companies do not comply with the demand to reduce production, so they are making their own plans," said Mikhail Krutikhin, a Russian energy analyst based in Norway. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Moscow will be starved of funds to run its war economy if Saudi Arabia delivers on plans to hike crude production to protect its own position as global oil kingpin.

Riyadh is increasingly frustrated with other petrostates’ failure to coordinate on cutting supply to raise oil prices to about $100 per barrel — up from the current $70. Oil traders say Saudi Arabia is now set to respond by flexing its muscles and turning the tables on smaller producers, exporting more oil itself to grab market share and profits, even as prices fall.

That strategy could sink oil prices and spell bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Oil and gas have been the largest single source of revenue for the Russian state over the past decade, making up as much as half of the country’s budget.

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Mikhail Krutikhin, a Russian energy analyst based in Norway, said Saudi Arabia’s possible move posed “an enormous risk” for Moscow’s state budget, because of its overwhelming dependency on oil revenues. And it’s just one of several unpredictable factors on the horizon, including the U.S. presidential election.

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