Q&A: AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill warns about El Niño ‘whiplash’

By Alex Nieves | 07/13/2026 06:40 AM EDT

California residents can expect the El Niño to bring both high wildfire and flood risk this year.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Hilary off Mexico’s Pacific coast.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Hilary off Mexico's Pacific coast on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA via AP

California is likely in store for some truly wild weather.

Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, and his team are currently projecting a 70 percent likelihood that the El Niño — a weather pattern fueled by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean — will reach “very strong” territory by this winter, the most intense category under the National Weather Service’s classification system.

If that wasn’t worrisome enough, Merrill expects it to hit Western states with a “whiplash” effect: oscillating periods of intense rainfall and dry conditions that heighten risk for fires, flash floods and landslides.

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The volatile weather was set to kick off this weekend, as the first major storm of the monsoon season — which brings more humidity and moisture to California — was forecast to bear down on Southern California and the Southwest, increasing the chance of lightning-sparked wildfires and deluges.

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