Congressional Republicans are nervously watching the wild fluctuations in oil prices and hoping for quick relief as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran continues to wreak havoc on global energy markets and test the party’s messaging on key issues.
The national average price of gasoline surpassed $3.53 a gallon Monday — up 51 cents since the start of the month — after crude oil shot up to nearly $120 a barrel. Crude prices then plummeted to about $86 a barrel Monday afternoon before rising once again.
The extreme swings in global and domestic energy costs are pitting two of the GOP’s biggest priorities — affordability and national security — against each other, forcing Republicans to walk a tightrope on both issues as the party works to solidify its agenda ahead of the midterm elections.
“The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Monday. “I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to.”
“Hopefully,” Thune added, “the operations in Iran … won’t be an extended situation.”
President Donald Trump, however, sent mixed signals about the war’s duration when speaking to House Republicans, who gathered in Doral, Florida, on Monday to kick off a weeklong legislative and strategy-planning retreat.
Trump described the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran as a “short-term excursion.” He then said the war would continue until “the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.”
The war has shown no signs of slowing. Israel over the weekend bombed a major Iranian oil storage site and the Department of War issued a statement Monday saying, “We have Only Just Begun to Fight.”
“If you are a Republican and not concerned right now, you are stupid,” one House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly told POLITICO. The lawmaker added, “Hopefully, we will square this away sooner than later.”
The White House has been moving in recent days to come up with creative solutions to temper the price increases, though energy market analysts have predicted that the administration’s actions could have limited impact on prices as long as the conflict continues.
Trump has announced plans to ease some sanctions on Russian oil sale, provide insurance for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and offer military escorts to tankers in the area. Releasing fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is also on the table, but administration officials have said they’re not ready to take that step.
“We’re putting an end to all of this threat once and for all, and the result will be lower oil prices — oil and gas prices — for American families,” Trump told GOP lawmakers. “We’ve done that; we’ve brought it very low. This was just an excursion into something that had to be done.”
But privately, a number of Republicans say they expect the energy price volatility to play poorly among their constituents — and for the GOP’s electoral prospects later this year.
One House Republican told POLITICO that gasoline prices are “the most sensitive thing amongst most driving Americans” and said the increases could send voters “right up the wall.”
Publicly, lawmakers are striking a more steady and often optimistic tone when discussing the energy price shocks and the war. They are pointing to the fact that the United States is producing record amounts of oil and gas.
“As Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted, the recent rise in oil prices should be temporary, and the United States is not facing an oil shortage,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in a statement. “I have full confidence in President Trump’s judgment to resolve the conflict with Iran sooner rather than later, and when it is resolved, both America and the world will be safer.”
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said, “I think it was expected to see some concern by the market, and everybody can understand that, but I think … people immediately have a first concern, and then once they start to see what’s going on with it, then they’ll start to reconsider. I think we’ll start to have some stability again.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who spent years urging Trump to strike Iran, said he believes the war will eventually produce more peace in the Middle East and prevent swings in energy prices.
“Once you take the largest state-sponsored terrorism off the planet who depends on oil for their revenue, you have a more stable world, and a more stable world is good for oil prices,” Graham said.
Democrats plan bills
While Republicans wait for the Trump administration to take more steps to calm the energy markets, congressional Democrats are proposing legislation that they believe will drive down the price of gasoline.
The bills are part of Democrats’ strategy to drive a wedge into Republicans’ messaging and appear like they are fighting for affordability, even though the bills currently have no chance of getting votes on the House or Senate floor.
“This war has resulted in huge spikes in gas prices for Americans, who are now paying more at the pump than at any point in either of President Trump’s two terms — only compounding the affordability crisis our country is facing,” a group of Senate Democratic leaders said in a statement.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called for drawing down oil from the SPR and introduced a bill to prohibit sales of American oil to China.
“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve exists precisely for moments like this,” Schumer said. “If President Trump cared about easing pain at the pump, he would act to release these reserves now. But instead of acting, Donald Trump is lost in a sea of delusional thinking.”
Senate Republican leadership in a release called Schumer’s plan hypocritical, pointing to Democrats’ successful effort in 2020 to block new proposed funding for the SPR.
Senate Environment and Public Works ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) is planning to reintroduce his “Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act,” which would tax major oil companies that reap large profits. The revenues would be turned into a quarterly rebate for lower-earning Americans.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is introducing legislation that would temporarily suspend the federal gas tax through Oct. 1 while directing the Treasury Department to provide alternative funding for the Highway Trust Fund.
Kelsey Brugger, Meredith Lee Hill, Pavan Acharya and Jordain Carney contributed to this report.
