Republicans hopeful Iran deal could stop the pain at the pump

By Megan Messerly, Scott Waldman | 06/16/2026 06:25 AM EDT

Even if gas prices ease, some Republicans, including those close to the White House, fear that voter perceptions of a sour economy are already baked in.

A gas pump nozzle in a car

A motorist fills up the tank of a vehicle at a Conoco gasoline station in Denver on May 30. David Zalubowski/AP

Republicans who have been raising alarm about the political costs of gas pump sticker shock are relieved the Iran war could be ending — and hopeful prices will soon ease near pre-war levels.

They’re split on whether it’s too little, too late.

Gas prices have been falling since their pre-Memorial Day peak of $4.56 per gallon in anticipation of a deal to end the war, now hovering just above $4 a gallon. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate that trend though it could take months, as the strait is freed of mines, tankers start the slow work of picking up oil shipments and Middle Eastern countries work to restore oil and gas fields hit by Iranian missiles.

Advertisement

And even if prices ease, some Republicans, including those close to the White House, fear that voter perceptions of a sour economy are already baked in and irreversible before the midterms. They note that President Donald Trump and the GOP were already grappling with affordability concerns before the war began at the end of February — and that merely returning to the status quo isn’t enough, particularly given the central role the economy plays in driving voter behavior at the polls.

GET FULL ACCESS