Republicans’ megabill not so beautiful for the climate, analysts find

By Zack Colman | 07/03/2025 06:33 AM EDT

Four research firms project Republicans’ budget bill will likely put U.S. and global climate goals out of reach.

Emissions rise from smokestacks.

Republicans' budget bill would increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions between 8 and 12 percent in 2035 compared with policies in place at the end of the Biden administration, according to analyses by four research firms. Charlie Riedel/AP

The rollbacks in clean energy incentives in Republicans’ budget planswill put the brakes on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions reductions by throttling the growth of renewables and electric vehicles, analyses from four research firms showed.

The extent of the Republican cuts is still being determined as the House takes up the Senate version of the GOP budget legislation. But early modeling by research groups shows the bill that passed Tuesday in the Senate would lift emissions of carbon dioxide by 8 to 12 percent from levels expected over the next decade if Democrats’ climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act (H.R. 5376 (117)), remained in place.

That figure is close to the 8 to 11 percent increase over the same period under the bill passed last month by House Republicans, according to figures calculated by the Rhodium Group. Those estimates don’t take into account the impacts the Trump administration’s regulatory actions would have on the carbon dioxide emissions released from power plants and tailpipes.

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President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gases 61 to 66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 — a target his administration said was needed to keep the world’s climate from careening further off track.

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