Weather forecasts already can anticipate heat waves several weeks in advance. Now, some scientists say they can better predict the number of people who might die when temperatures spike.
The new analysis isn’t intended to serve as some sort of grim prophecy, the scientists say. Rather, it’s supposed to help local authorities issue better alerts in advance of deadly heat events.
“We advocate for these types of forecasts to be incorporated into existing heat warning systems,” said Emma Holmberg, a Ph.D. student specializing in European temperature extremes at Uppsala University in Sweden, in an email.
Holmberg is the lead author of a new study, published this week in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which demonstrates a new heat forecasting system. These forecasts can be accurate as much as two weeks before an extreme heat event occurs, the study finds.
