Texas could take financial hit from falling oil production — report

By Ian M. Stevenson | 11/04/2025 06:52 AM EST

Resources for the Future examined how the Lone Star State and other oil and gas states tax producers and save what they collect.

The sun sets behind a pump jack in Fort Stockton, Texas.

The sun sets behind a pump jack in Fort Stockton, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Texas and other major oil and gas states that don’t invest in long-term savings funds risk creating future financial challenges for residents during industry downturns, according to a new report.

The study from researchers at the nonprofit Resources for the Future singled out Texas for its high reliance on oil and gas revenues from the Permian Basin without saving or investing much of those revenues for local government or state services — other than an education fund and a short-term rainy-day fund.

“Its strategy will support primary and higher education across the state, but does little to protect other state or local public services,” Daniel Raimi, a fellow at the environmental think tank and co-author of the report, said by email Monday. “In a world where oil and gas revenues are volatile and subject to deep uncertainty, states that do not invest with a long-term strategy are exposing residents to significant risks of declining public services, higher taxes, or both.”

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U.S. oil production has been at all-time highs in recent years, with record output levels during the Biden administration that have been eclipsed during the second Trump administration. But domestic crude production could peak in 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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