Threat of $4.50 gasoline wanes as US-Iran conflict eases

By Shelby Webb | 06/24/2025 07:20 AM EDT

Analysts said further strikes between the countries could send oil prices soaring and affect U.S. consumers at the pump.

A nozzle pumps gasoline into a vehicle at a gas station

A nozzle pumps gasoline into a vehicle at a gas station in Los Angeles. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Oil prices have been on a roller coaster since the United States bombed nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend, and analysts warn that an escalation of the conflict could see U.S. consumers paying as much as $4.50 for a gallon of gasoline.

But the national average price was well below that Monday — $3.22 for a gallon of regular, according to the AAA auto club. Then on Monday evening President Donald Trump announced a planned ceasefire between Israel and Iran after almost two weeks of war between those countries, sending crude futures lower.

Energy costs are closely watched by consumers, who often notice changes posted on gasoline stations across the country. Trump pledged during last year’s campaign to cut energy prices in half within 18 months, a goal some observers have said would be difficult to achieve. The benchmark U.S. oil price on Monday fell below $70 a barrel after Iran launched a missile attack against the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.

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“It seems that Iran’s initial retaliation has been directed at regional U.S. military [assets] so far, and that seems to be their focus rather than major oil infrastructure,” said Tracy Shuchart, senior economist at NinjaTrader, a futures trading platform. “That has kind of eased fears.”

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