Trump bets on short Iran oil crunch. Experts see prolonged pain and rising costs.

By Scott Waldman | 05/01/2026 06:41 AM EDT

Administration officials say Tehran is days from crisis, but analysts see a slower squeeze with global price shocks already hitting U.S. consumers and reshaping the political fight.

A gas pump with a Trump sticker saying "I did that" that points to the gas price

A gas station on Connecticut Avenue in Washington as Americans continue to feel the squeeze from rising fuel costs driven by global oil disruptions linked to the Iran war. Dave Toomey for POLITICO

The Trump administration insists that its naval blockade is putting the squeeze on Iran and that the regime is just a “matter of days” away from an energy crisis unless it capitulates.

Energy experts are skeptical and say the White House is misreading both the timing of the harm to the Iranian oil industry as well as the regime’s tolerance for pain.

The standoff comes as benchmark oil prices hit a four-year high Thursday while the average price at the pump jumped to $4.30 a gallon, up 27 cents in the last week. Democrats, eager to press their advantage, are exploiting public anger at rising costs while a top Republican super PAC warned Thursday that the Senate majority was at risk because of voters’ cost-of-living concerns.

Advertisement

Still, the White House officials insist that the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s global oil and natural gas supplies are shipped — is crippling Iran and will soon leave the regime little choice but to meet President Donald Trump’s demands.

GET FULL ACCESS