US drivers’ gain turns into pain for US oil sector — and energy dominance

By Ben Lefebvre | 09/12/2025 06:40 AM EDT

Rising global production of oil is keeping inflationary pressures in U.S. fuel costs at bay, but the domestic oil producers are feeling the sting.

Donald Trump

President Donald Trump stands for a moment of silence Thursday during a ceremony to commemorate the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks at the Pentagon in Washington. Evan Vucci/AP Photo

President Donald Trump is likely to get some relief from rising gasoline prices that helped feed inflation in August.

But the solution may spell trouble for his hopes of U.S. energy dominance.

Global oil inventories are expected to swell in the final months of 2025 through the first quarter of next year, largely because of rising output from OPEC as the cartel unwinds production cuts it imposed dating back to the Covid pandemic. That increase, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts, will weigh on crude oil prices over the coming months — and cause pain for U.S. drillers that are already pulling back.

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Gasoline prices rose 1.9 percent in August after posting mostly declines over the previous six months, according to Consumer Price Index data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday. The rising fuel prices contributed to the 2.9 percent overall increase in consumer price index, the fourth-straight month of acceleration in the annualized rate. A less volatile gauge that excludes food and energy costs remained stuck above 3 percent.

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