U.S. gas exports are getting a boost from their role as a key bargaining chip in the Trump administration’s trade negotiations.
Fresh off wins for the fossil fuel sector in the Republican megalaw, the Trump administration is now pushing hard in the talks for countries to buy U.S. fossil fuels, most notably natural gas that’s liquefied for easy export over long distances.
New gas purchase commitments from foreign trade partners are helping to avert a wave of U.S. tariffs set to take effect Aug. 1. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in recent days that the final sprint on trade talks will be “for the record books,” adding that countries will be hit with tariffs in August if deals aren’t reached.
“LNG is playing a significant role in the bilateral trade talks,” Mark Menezes, president of the U.S. Energy Association trade group and a former Department of Energy official in Trump’s first term, said in an interview. “It’s certainly a way to address the trade imbalance and also the potential tariffs.”
As of last week, 14 binding deals and seven tentative ones have been signed this year for U.S. LNG, said Talon Custer, an energy equity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
This week, President Donald Trump announced new trade deals with Japan and Indonesia, and deals with Malaysia and the European Union appear close. While Trump is touting the deals as major breakthroughs for U.S. industry, they are not the traditional, all-encompassing free trade agreements that typically take months or years to negotiate and enact into law with congressional approval.
Still, on Tuesday, Trump said the United States had reached a trade agreement with Japan that will include a “major expansion of U.S. energy exports.”
He said the United States and Japan are likely forming a “joint venture” in Alaska around LNG, telling Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to “set that up.” Trump has been talking about the potential venture for months.
The White House also announced a deal with Indonesia that advances trade in crude oil, gasoline and liquid petroleum gas, a product category that includes propane. A White House spokesperson did not respond for comment on more details of the pact, but the American Petroleum Institute celebrated it.
It’s too soon to tell if the deal will reverse long-standing U.S. trade imbalances. The U.S. trade deficit in May was roughly $72 billion, down from deficit spikes earlier in the year but up from April 2024.
But the trade deals and new business ventures are central to the Trump administration’s all-out push to boost fossil fuels — and cut federal support for renewables.
The Republican budget law directs more oil and gas lease sales on public lands and slashes royalty payments. It also gives oil and gas producers new tax perks — and delays for a decade a fee on methane emissions.
Those wins for the oil and gas sector passed alongside massive cuts to wind and solar tax credits and grants.
The U.S. is flush with natural gas and is adding infrastructure to ship more. The Department of Energy says the U.S. is on track to triple LNG export capacity by 2030.
The White House says it’s prioritizing LNG.
“President Trump is leveraging every tool of government to boost natural gas production and LNG exports,” Harrison Fields, a White House spokesperson, told POLITICO’s E&E News. “This stands as a major priority and success for President Trump, as we’ve already witnessed significant demand and interest from our trading partners for more American LNG.”
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to requests for comment.
Loose commitments for Alaskan LNG
A handful of buyers in Asia have shown interest in Alaska LNG, which includes a proposed 807-mile natural gas pipeline and an LNG export terminal.
The owners of the proposed Alaska LNG project, led by the Glenfarne Group, in March signed a nonbinding deal with Taiwan’s state-owned oil and gas company for the firm to buy gas from the project.
In June, Burgum, Wright and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin traveled to Alaska, where they pushed for greater energy development and held meetings with foreign ministers to advance projects like Alaska LNG. They also appeared with Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) at the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference.
Pan Men-an, the secretary-general to the president of Taiwan, who spoke at the conference through an interpreter, said the Taiwanese government is “ready to expand its procurement of natural gas, agricultural goods and industrial products from the United States.”
“Alaska stands at the center of this endeavor,” he added.
Later in June, Thai national oil company PTT reached an agreement of its own with Glenfarne. Then, this month, Reuters reported that GAIL Ltd. — India’s leading natural gas company — is in preliminary talks to buy LNG from the Alaska LNG project.
Glenfarne declined to confirm those reports.
“Glenfarne does not comment on or confirm individual commercial negotiations, but Alaska LNG’s growing commercial momentum reflects the project’s competitive economic and geostrategic advantages,” the company said in a statement to POLITICO’s E&E News.
Robert Fee, vice president of policy, government and public affairs at Cheniere Energy, said last month that the Trump administration “correctly recognizes the role of U.S. LNG in a way that previous administrations have not.”
“They also see it as a way through the tariff and the trade negotiations as a way to correct the trade imbalance with other countries,” Fee said, speaking on a panel at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum.
But he noted companies don’t rush into contracts because of political pressure. Many Asian countries are reliant on imported fossil fuels.
“U.S. oil and natural gas imports are easy for those countries that rely on imports for sources of energy and like to do business with the U.S,” said Menezes with the U.S. Energy Association. “It’s something they need. It’s something they’re willing to talk about. It’s something they need to buy on the global markets anyway.”
In Asia, Japan in particular is in the “driver’s seat” when it comes to procuring LNG, said Sam Reynolds, research lead for LNG at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
“Japan has a number of reasons to buy more U.S. LNG,” Reynolds said. “Not only to alleviate the threat of tariffs, but also because Japan wants to shift its supply to more flexible supplies of LNG.”
The drive to lock down buyers for U.S. LNG comes as Chinese imports of the fuel have dried up. China did not import any U.S. LNG for the first four months of 2025, according to a June report from DOE. Instead, China has resold contracted volumes since the imposition of tariffs.
“Unless Chinese tariffs are rescinded or Asian buyers start offering a significant premium to their European counterparts, reselling to Europe will remain more profitable,” Rystad Energy analysts said in an analysis published this month.
European demand
The European Union is staring down a 30 percent tariff set to take effect Aug. 1, and a deal still remains elusive.
Henning Gloystein, practice head of energy, climate and resources at the Eurasia Group, said countries like Germany and Italy are likely supportive of more U.S. LNG imports to avert tariffs.
“It’s all dependent on tariffs,” he said. “If Trump sticks to 30 percent [tariffs], then the last thing Europeans or Germans will do is buy any American LNG. No chance.”
U.S. LNG exports to Europe dropped nearly one-fifth in 2024, compared to a year earlier when the continent was reeling from the gas supply disruption triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But the E.U. is proposing a ban on Russian gas by the end of 2027, potentially paving the way for more U.S. exports. Gloystein said the Russian gas cut-off offers an “entry point” for U.S. LNG.
Also complicating the picture: Europeans could impose rules to restrict LNG that exceeds a certain methane content, a move that could upend bilateral talks with the U.S., according to experts.
“This issue is going to be a conflict between the U.S. and EU,” said Brenda Shaffer, an author and researcher at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. “The EU will probably have to agree to exempt U.S. LNG from its specific methane content requirements.”
The Italian firm Eni, meanwhile, announced an agreement this month with U.S. LNG producer Venture Global to buy 2 million metric tons of LNG annually for 20 years. Venture Global said the deal is Eni’s first ever long-term agreement with a U.S. LNG producer. German-owned Securing Energy for Europe, or SEFE, also signed a deal with Venture Global, expanding how much LNG the company would buy from the CP2 LNG terminal in Louisiana.
Gloystein said the EU will be a prime target for U.S. LNG over the next decade.
“Europe between now and 2035 will be very important for American LNG sellers because it’s a natural fit,” he said, pointing to the easy transit from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe. “As long as NATO doesn’t totally fall to pieces, even with Trump, the Europeans are willing to hold their noses and say ‘We’ll take that gas.’”
Still, potential LNG concessions may only go so far for the Trump administration.
Reed Blakemore, director of research and programs at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, said the trade talks are likely to focus on “old-school trade balances” focused on manufactured and agricultural goods.
“Whether or not LNG plays a fulcrum role in the execution of those trade deals, I’m a little bit circumspect about,” he said. “However, it’s certainly in the ‘nice to have’ category, as far as offering an olive branch to the administration.”
