Congress returns to Washington on Tuesday with a packed to-do list for the lame-duck session. Republicans, empowered by their Election Day sweep, could determine how much gets done.
With the GOP likely to keep its House majority while winning the Senate and the presidency, some of Congress’ thorniest priorities such as government spending, energy permitting and the farm bill could get kicked into the new year, when a Republican trifecta can have its say on funding levels and policy.
More bipartisan efforts — passing disaster aid, water infrastructure authorizations and the annual defense policy bill — are more likely to be wrapped up before Christmas.
“It’s going to be a robust few weeks,” Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.) told reporters in the Capitol on Friday.
But there’s plenty of uncertainty. Congressional leaders have yet to telegraph their lame-duck plans as Republicans plot how and when to tackle conservative priorities knowing they will have the blessing of a second Trump administration come January.
While leaders on both sides of the aisle have said they want to wrap up negotiations on government spending bills before the Dec. 20 deadline, bicameral talks on a top-line funding level — let alone the substance of the House and Senate’s bills — have yet to begin.
Further complicating the agenda is Republicans’ eagerness to pass a sweeping budget reconciliation package in the first few months of the new year. Many of them have expressed a desire to reach a spending deal soon to clear the runway for the next administration.
It’s not clear where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) lands on timing for a spending deal. “To truly make America great again, we will need to begin delivering for the people on day one,” he said in a letter to colleagues last week.
The lame-duck action will kick off with House and Senate Republican leadership elections Wednesday. House Democrats will reportedly hold their leadership elections on Nov. 19, and Senate Democrats will likely have theirs in December.
From there, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will likely work to implement an agenda reflective of President Joe Biden’s lame-duck wish list: keeping the government funded, approving new disaster aid, passing the National Defense Authorization Act and getting more judicial nominees confirmed.
The House will begin its end-of-year sprint this week with votes on a handful of bills, including some focused on geothermal energy and critical minerals. Johnson said earlier this year that he then wants to move “aggressively” toward a “significant package of China-related legislation.”
More broadly, Democrats and Republicans will pursue a disaster relief supplemental to refill recently drained disaster accounts, as well as an artificial intelligence package that could include provisions on data centers’ energy consumption and the use of AI to speed up energy permitting.
Committee leaders are expected to hold hearings on lingering priorities while negotiations continue on key bills such as the Water Resources Development Act.
Lawmakers may also attempt final pushes on long-standing priorities such as an overhaul of the National Flood Insurance Program, which received renewed criticism after recent hurricanes, and a program to compensate victims of nuclear radiation.
Government spending
The fight over how to fund the government beyond Dec. 20 will be Congress’ most time-consuming endeavor — if it gets done at all. Delays could trigger a shutdown days before Christmas.
House Republicans have advanced all 12 of their fiscal 2025 appropriations bills out of committee and passed five on the floor, largely along party lines due to proposed cuts to a wide swath of federal programs, including those that support renewables, energy efficiency and climate resilience.
Senate appropriators have advanced 11 of their spending bills with broad bipartisan support, but leaders have not put any of them up for a vote.
The top Democrat and Republican on both the House and Senate spending panels have expressed their desire to pass all of the full-year spending bills before the end of the year, but major differences between the House and Senate versions — and a roughly $90 billion gulf between the chambers’ overall top lines — will make reaching an agreement in the next five weeks difficult.
Johnson and his leadership team have been insistent that they will not stand for an all-encompassing year-end spending package known as an omnibus, and have called instead for passing bills through “regular order.”
However, House and Senate aides alike have acknowledged that Johnson may have his hands tied on appropriations given the limited time. If an omnibus is out of the question, the likeliest alternative is a second short-term funding extension, which conservatives generally also oppose.
Any spending deal will have to be bipartisan given Republicans’ extremely slim House majority and the Democratic Senate’s 60-vote threshold.
“The Senate is clear on where they want to go; it’s just a question of how far [House Republican leaders] want to drag this out,” said a Senate Democratic aide granted anonymity to speak candidly.
A continuing resolution, likely lasting around three months, appears increasingly likely come December, and it could serve as a vehicle for last-minute priorities such as disaster relief, according to two House aides.
Disaster aid
Congressional leaders and lawmakers across the ideological spectrum say one of their top priorities during the lame duck is to approve a supplemental funding package loaded with what could be tens of billions of dollars for disaster relief.
The broad support for a disaster aid package follows the devastation that hurricanes Helene and Milton wrought on parts of the Southeast in late September and October. States such as Hawaii and Vermont, which suffered major disasters last year, have also gone without long-term recovery funding.
Congress left Washington for its preelection recess in September having extended fiscal 2024 funding levels for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund — about $20 billion. Lawmakers did not approve supplemental aid, frustrating disaster-state lawmakers who were anticipating the funding shortfalls that precipitated days later.
Biden administration officials warned last month that FEMA’s disaster fund will not survive another major hurricane this season unless Congress appropriates more money. The Small Business Administration has already run out of cash for new disaster loans.
“Congress will provide,” Johnson said last month on Fox News. “It’ll all happen in due time, and we’ll get that job done. There shouldn’t be any concern about that at all.”
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) has introduced two bills to provide nearly $18 billion to refill disaster accounts at SBA, FEMA and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is a co-sponsor on one of them. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has introduced a separate bill to shore up SBA’s disaster loans funding.
Whatever disaster package Congress ultimately passes — likely to be attached to a continuing resolution before the end of the year — is “going to be enormous,” said Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.).
“There are so many infrastructure repairs,” she said. “It’s going to be a very, very, very large number, and … I think there will be a lot of flexibilities given to local communities to build back in a stronger way.”
Congressional leaders have insisted that they need to wait for official cost estimates or a new supplemental funding request from the White House Office of Management and Budget before approving new aid, but those steps are technically not necessary.
Biden more than a year ago requested that Congress appropriate more than $50 billion for a host of domestic programs — including about $24 billion for disaster aid — and then expanded that request by several billion dollars over the summer.
Negotiations around a disaster package could get bogged down if there are disputes around the underlying vehicle, if fiscal hawks oppose the price tag or if members push to tack on unrelated, partisan measures.
“I’m hoping, as someone who was in New Jersey at a time when we suffered through Superstorm Sandy and had many of the folks who are still in this body vote against our aid, that we’re gonna be able to come to the help of our fellow Americans,” Helmy said last week. “I’m hopeful that will get done.”
The House-passed “Federal Disaster Tax Relief Act,” H.R. 5863, from Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) would provide financial relief to victims of certain disasters. It is expected to be included in a disaster package, according to two Senate aides.
Energy permitting
The prospects of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) compromise permitting package diminished considerably after Republicans swept control of Washington last week.
The bill, which the retiring Energy and Natural Resources Committee chair worked on for months with his Republican committee counterpart, Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, includes provisions for oil and gas backers and climate hawks alike.
It would, among other things, speed up natural gas export approvals, shorten judicial review timelines and empower federal regulators to build out power lines to unleash clean energy.
But the likely Republican trifecta makes what was already a difficult path forward even more arduous. That’s because Republicans have long been wary of legislating transmission — because it would embolden federal regulators over state planners and rework cost allocation formulas that determine who pays for new lines.
Democrats, too, had bristled at the oil and gas industry benefits, but many saw the Manchin-Barrasso compromise as their one shot to build out the nation’s grid — needed to achieve the nation’s goal of cutting most pollution from the grid by 2035.
And that’s a tall order: The American Clean Power Association reported that just 255 miles of transmission were delivered last year. To put that in context, the trade group said, developers are pursuing 10,000 miles by the end of the decade.
That’s not strictly for zero-carbon generation, but on Capitol Hill transmission is now seen as a climate issue. Republicans complain new lines run roughshod over red state land at the behest of blue states’ climate plans. And in recent weeks, lobbyists for major utilities have been airing concerns with the package to congressional offices.
Now, Hill aides, lobbyists and observers doubt Republicans would be willing to make a deal on permitting in the lame duck.
“Not much incentive for the House to take up anything,” said one K Street lobbyist granted anonymity to speak publicly. “Even if passed by the Senate, when they can just write their own permitting reform bill, focus it on fossil expansion, intro it as H.R. 2 or 3 next year and pass it on a party-line vote.”
They also don’t see much agreement on one of the larger packages like appropriations or the farm bill that the measure would likely have to hitch a ride on.
Defense bill
The fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act is expected to pass before the end of the year, and it could carry a host of bipartisan energy and environment policies.
Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees and their staffs began negotiations on the bill in September and have expressed confidence that they can craft a compromise measure soon after Congress reconvenes.
The Senate never voted on its own version despite the fact that it advanced out of committee with bipartisan support. The House passed its NDAA over the summer after tacking on provisions aimed at the administration’s climate agenda and hot-button social issues.
Negotiators will have to sort through those tension points as well as the bills’ vastly different top lines. The Senate measure would authorize about $25 billion more than some fiscal hawks in the House are comfortable with.
Still, lawmakers will likely find common ground on certain defense-related energy and environment issues, such as critical mineral procurement, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, nuclear energy and disaster relief for military installations.
Legislation to boost international cooperation on nuclear energy, a program targeting PFAS in water sources and a popular mining bill were all included in a package of relatively uncontroversial amendments to the Senate NDAA earlier this year.
Of the additional $25 billion authorization that the Senate Armed Services Committee approved for its bill, half would go toward helping military bases in Guam rebuild infrastructure destroyed by Typhoon Mawar.
Farm bill
Lawmakers will make a last-ditch effort to pass significant farm and food policy through a multiyear farm bill. The most likely scenario is a second extension of the 2018 farm bill that expired in 2023, possibly with some additions that have bipartisan agreement.
“I think a straight extension is not quite enough,” said Michael Lavender, policy director at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, which supports increased funding for conservation.
Farm organizations and policy groups said they’re looking for a possible agreement on moving conservation funding from the Inflation Reduction Act into a farm bill extension, if Democrats and Republicans can agree on a way to do that without abandoning the IRA’s focus on climate change.
The lure to move quickly: More than $10 billion in IRA conservation funding may still be unspent and would increase the farm bill’s budget baseline into the future — but those funds shrink as the Department of Agriculture rolls out the programs.
The IRA conservation funding is limited to a long list of farm practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but some practices that are normally funded in conservation programs aren’t eligible. Republicans have said they’d prefer to strip that condition on the funding.
Lawmakers have yet to strike a compromise position, and retiring Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) has stood firm against dropping the climate focus.
It’s possible, too, that lawmakers will use a farm bill extension to boost subsidy payments to farmers who’ve been hit by low commodity prices and high inflation.
And lawmakers will also face pressure to include in any extension the “orphan” programs that don’t have a permanent budget baseline, including some bioenergy incentives and research on urban, indoor and emerging agriculture.
Reporters Emma Dumain and Garrett Downs contributed.
