The Atlantic Ocean has grown eerily quiet over the last few weeks, at a time of the year when hurricane activity typically would hit its peak. Not a single storm has formed since Hurricane Ernesto spun up on Aug. 12 — the first time since 1968 this stretch of the year has been so empty.
But forecasters say the season still could heat up. Several factors have converged to cause the current lull — but those and other variables could shift in the coming weeks.
“Continued extremely warm Atlantic, trend towards La Niña and forecast low [wind] shear indicate that the season may still pick up during the second half,” said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist and hurricane expert at Colorado State University, in a post on X on Wednesday.
The dry spell has come as a surprise. Forecasters had predicted this year’s Atlantic hurricane season would be one of the most active on record, thanks to a combination of record-breaking ocean temperatures and favorable wind conditions associated with a brewing La Niña event.
