Affordability pressures are weighing heavily on the White House heading into next year’s midterm elections. They’re also offering cautious hope in Mexico and Canada that the U.S. won’t abandon its trilateral trade pact as the three countries enter a high-stakes review.
Interviews with nine current and former U.S., Canadian and Mexican officials and trade experts suggest a guarded belief that inflation politics heading into the 2026 midterms could temper President Donald Trump’s more explosive threats on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
USMCA, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term, governs about $1.5 trillion in annual North American commerce, setting the rules for everything from cars to corn. A built-in “sunset review” requires the three countries next year to decide whether to extend the pact for another 16 years.
Trump has suggested he might pull out of the agreement, but some trade experts on both sides of the border are betting that’s just bluster and that the president wouldn’t risk quashing a deal that has helped keep prices in check.
