If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is any guide, the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran could send global carbon dioxide emissions soaring.
The burgeoning conflict in the Middle East has shut down shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supplies. The situation contains echoes of 2022 when Europe shut off Russian pipeline imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s moves set off a global scramble for LNG cargoes, sent gas prices soaring from Amsterdam to Tokyo and led to a surge in coal generation.
Whether an emissions spike occurs again this year remains to be seen. Gas prices in Europe and Asia surged after the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Saturday, prompting some analysts to predict an uptick in global coal generation.
But most observers said it is still too early to tell how the conflict could impact global energy markets. Much depends on the duration of the conflict and how long Qatari production remains shut in.
