NOAA predicts below-average hurricane season but urges caution

By Chelsea Harvey | 05/21/2026 01:23 PM EDT

A brewing El Niño is the primary factor shaping this year’s hurricane season.

People bike past damaged homes in Englewood, Florida, after Hurricane Milton.

People bike past damaged homes in Englewood, Florida, after Hurricane Milton in 2024. Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Fewer hurricanes are expected to form in the Atlantic this summer compared to other years, NOAA scientists predicted Thursday, ahead of what still threatens to be a treacherous hurricane season with up to three major storms.

The agency’s forecast calls for eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes, one to three of which will reach a Category 3 or higher. That’s compared with an annual average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes over the last 30 years.

Caution is still warranted, meteorologists said.

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“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs at a press briefing. “We have had Category 5 hurricanes make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.”

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