UK quietly increases AI emissions forecast 100-fold

By Joseph Bambridge | 04/29/2026 06:18 AM EDT

The new figures are incompatible with the government’s green targets, campaigners say.

LONDON — The U.K. government admitted carbon emissions from data centers could be 100 times greater than previously thought, prompting fresh concern from MPs and campaigners over the environmental impacts of artificial intelligence.

Revised analysis accompanying a government “Compute Roadmap,” published last week, shows U.K. emissions of greenhouse gas from AI could reach 123 million metric tons of CO2 (MtCO2) — the equivalent of 3.4 percent of the U.K.’s emissions between 2025 and 2035.

That’s significantly higher than a forecast published in July 2025 of up to 0.142 MtCO2 from AI in 2035. The initial modeling was withdrawn in March in order to “reflect new analysis.”

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The forecast for water consumption from AI data centers has also been increased, from 1 trillion cubic meters in 2035 to between 0.1–0.5 trillion cubic meters each year over the decade.

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